Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.632321 2.141223 2.822383 3.822359 5.290680e+00 7.430593e+00 1.090932e+01
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.066468 1.581886 2.390654 3.820458 6.445657e+00 1.143325e+01 2.273530e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.818025 1.352738 2.323052 4.379317 9.156087e+00 2.149325e+01 6.487097e+01
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.635867 1.154618 2.225588 4.918474 1.287214e+01 4.200231e+01 2.277655e+02
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.512586 1.013496 2.180609 5.659279 1.897509e+01 9.382713e+01 1.316323e+03
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.416167 0.886648 2.109229 6.395625 2.788985e+01 2.312836e+02 1.887904e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.320830 0.721248 1.848847 6.331451 3.452877e+01 4.819081e+02 1.284217e+06
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.246511 0.577739 1.571626 5.952001 3.959169e+01 9.529452e+02 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.204309 0.502277 1.465221 6.275761 5.424578e+01 3.162868e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.179790 0.466435 1.475269 7.336004 9.000721e+01 2.794841e+04 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.162570 0.445415 1.533034 8.986197 1.704739e+02 3.618112e+06 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.141975 0.405059 1.486900 9.942541 2.800307e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.117819 0.345690 1.327991 9.779357 3.798413e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.097202 0.291213 1.157811 9.189742 4.683777e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.086275 0.267976 1.131796 10.295919 9.133617e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.076574 0.245571 1.095382 11.331282 1.852971e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.069144 0.229222 1.083291 12.914699 4.766000e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.062429 0.213167 1.061688 14.478590 1.405952e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.054176 0.187517 0.957030 13.921308 2.373275e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.046603 0.162463 0.839990 12.651529 3.027679e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.042014 0.149257 0.798777 13.220050 9.397983e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.039367 0.143939 0.812531 15.645344 1.647248e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.037508 0.141640 0.849828 19.625866 NaN NaN NaN